Please note: this even t has been moved forward to 11:30 am on Wednesday\, June 2.
The re is a growing literature on strategic voting for minor parties in multipa rty systems. However\, there is no coherent account of the decision-making processes that differentiate the two main strategies: coalition insurance v oting and compensational voting. The literature does not address the possib ility of a hybrid strategy either. Moreover\, most of the studies use endog enous independent variables that are likely to bias their results. The pres ent study analyses strategic voting for minor parties by taking into accoun t the type of campaign information that is required under different strateg ies and by using exogenous measures of the independent variables to allow v alid causal inference. To do so\, it uses data from the 2013 and 2017 GLES campaign-period surveys\, polls\, and an original dataset of tweets about p olicy posted by candidates during the campaign. The results show evidence o f voters using a hybrid compensational/coalition insurance strategy in the 2013 German federal election and a pure compensational strategy in the 2017 German federal election. There is no evidence of pure coalition insurance voting in these elections. These findings reaffirm the view that the campai gn plays a crucial role in the decision-making process of voters\, in this case by allowing voters to target coalitions based on policy.
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