By Terri E. Givens, Professor of Political Science
As a researcher of comparative politics, recent political events in France, the U.K. and the U.S. have been fascinating and, in many ways, unprecedented.
And as an African American woman born ten days after Kamala Harris, the last few days have been particularly mind-blowing. We are seeing coalitions form in expected and unexpected places, often informal, messy and prone to falling apart under pressure. This is particularly true for parties on the left, which tend to be made up of diverse factions.
A commonality between recent events in France, the U.K. and the U.S. has been timing and coordination. In France and the UK, snap elections were called by leaders hoping to catch other parties off guard. This strategy back-fired for U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron, as the Labour party in the U.K. was far ahead in the polls, and the very divided French left quickly formed an electoral coalition.
What happened in France in particular confirms theories from my first book, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. I argued that pre-electoral coalitions could encourage strategic voting, depending on the nature of the electoral system. This type of coalition, called the cordon sanitaire or republican front, had left and mainstream right candidates working together to give voters only one option against the radical right in the second round.
Although such coalitions had broken down in previous regional elections, the strategy was a resounding success in the recent national election. Many, including myself, had predicted that the far-right Rassemblement National would win the most seats, but the left-wing coalition held firm, keeping Marine Le Pen’s party in third place.
Despite the election result leaving the French assembly in a state of upheaval, voters are jubilant to have beaten back the radical right’s move to power.
Does this outcome have any meaning beyond France?
In the U.S., the strategy behind Biden’s shock announcement to step down remains unclear. Some suggest it was designed to keep the focus off Kamala Harris during the Republican Convention while giving her enough time to consolidate support before the Democratic Convention. The speed with which the Democratic party has come together is stunning, given the divisiveness of the past few weeks.
As political scientist Seth Masket noted, “What we’ve seen over the past few weeks is a form of party strength that I honestly didn’t think still existed in the US — a party strong enough to remove a sitting president. US parties, even in their strong moments, have tended to be highly deferential to their presidents, even when it looked like those candidates might lose the next election.”
The quickly-formed Harris campaign has broken fundraising records, raising over $85 million dollars in 24 hours, mostly from small donors. Many who were previously dispirited by the ongoing calls for Biden to step down have rallied behind Harris, both financially and as volunteers. Webinars hosted by Black men and women garnered nearly 100,000 participants, and the first few Harris rallies have been full of excited supporters.
The diverse coalition within the Democratic Party and independents appears more energized now, reminiscent of 2008 when Barack Obama won the presidency. Maintaining this momentum is crucial for a potential blue wave in November.
President Joe Biden’s decision to step down, requiring a swift campaign turnaround and pivot to Vice President Harris, feels similar to the snap elections in both France and the UK. It’s a risky move, but early responses suggest it might just be a winning strategy.
About the author
Terri Givens is a Professor of Political Science at the University of British Columbia. Givens’ research and teaching focuses on comparative politics in Europe and the US, including immigration policy, the politics of race, and anti-discrimination policy in Europe and the U.S. She conducted ground-breaking research on the radical right in Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Her current research project focuses on the intersection of migration and race politics in a global context.
Givens is the author/editor of books and articles on immigration policy, European politics, and the politics of race. She is well known for her memoir, Radical Empathy: Finding a Path to Bridging Racial Divides, where she combines her own experiences with the political, offering practical steps to call out racism and bring about radical social change.
Her most recent book is The Roots of Racism: The Politics of White Supremacy in the US and Europe.
